Analysis of basketball scoring trends since 2010

In the last 10-15 years, there have been a number of changes to high school basketball that have an impact on the game and the results trends.

In 2010, the WIAA expanded the maximum number of regular season varsity contests from 20 to 22. That was also the first season of five divisions in hoops, with four teams at state in each division.

A mercy rule that sees the clock run continuously if the score reaches more than 40 points (first implemented for the fourth quarter, and now for the final nine minutes of the second half)

The 2015-16 season saw the change from four, eight-minute quarters at the varsity level to two, 18-minute halves.

The COVID pandemic impacted the very end of the 2019-20 season, the off-season development and preparations, and the ensuing 2020-21 campaign, as some teams did not play at all, some were delayed in getting started, additional protocols such as masking were put in place, and the WIAA once again expanded the maximum number of varsity contests, this time to 24.

Going back to the late 1980’s through 2010, the most games a team could play was 27, when multiplied by 32 minutes per game is 864 maximum minutes in a season. Since 2021, the max minutes available, through game limit increases and more minutes in each game, is 1,080. That’s a difference of 216 minutes, which is the equivalent of nearly seven complete games.

All of these changes were supported by input and rationale from key stakeholders, including the coaches, the Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association, athletic directors, and WIAA staff.

However, little research has been conducted to review the actual implications of these changes, and the measurable effects they have had, especially since discussions around max game limits, halves versus quarters, shot clocks, and other items continue.

We have pulled in results data for both boys and girls basketball since the 2010-11 season to identify trends and study the impacts of several key changes.

The full data can be found below, followed by a review and analysis of the information.

Key:

The average total points per game for boys basketball fluctuated slightly in the first four years of data, from 104.7 in 2010-11 to 105.8 in 2013-14. The change to two, 18-minute halves instead of four, eight-minute quarters did have a significant impact on the total number of points scored.

In five years of data for the use of quarters, boys basketball games averaged a total of 105.3 points per game. In the ten regular years of halves play since 2015-16, the average total points per game was 119.0, an increase of 13.7 total points per game or roughly 13%.

Not only did the raw number of points per game increase, but so too did the points per minute, at least in boys hoops. It averaged 3.29 points per minute in boys basketball in the five years of quarters play, and increased to 3.31 points per minute using halves.

This increase in points per minute, would seem to indicate more action during the course of the game, likely the result of the elimination of two quarter breaks that often resulted in teams holding for the last shot for upwards of a minute or more. The change to halves was recommended for just that reason, to increase game flow, and also to add more playing opportunities for more student-athletes.

Similar trends were seen in girls basketball. In the five years of data that utilized four, eight-minute quarters, girls basketball teams averaged 87.7 points per game. In the ten years following, 2015-16 to 2024-25, that number increased to 97.1 points per game, an increase of just shy of 11%.

However, per minute scoring was down slightly in girls basketball, going from 2.74 points per minute in the time frame using quarters play, to 2.70 points per minute under halves. This despite the average margin of victory continuing to increase, showing a further divide between good teams and weaker teams.

Basketball is a sport that requires a high degree of skill, and those skills must be honed over time, beginning in youth basketball and continuing with off-season development and improvement. The time invested by players, coaches, and teams has a significant impact on success, including offensive performance.

There has always been a gap between the top teams and the bottom teams, but that gap has continually increased, especially on the girls side.

In boys basketball, the average margin of victory was around 15.7 points per game in the five years of data available under the quarters system. That increased to about 17 points per game in the first few years of halves (not surprising, given the increase in minutes played and points scored), and has jumped to roughly 19 points per game the last couple years.

Things have been even more striking in girls basketball, which saw an average of roughly 18 points per game margin of victory in quarters, which has steadily increased under the halves system, even though overall scoring has been trending downwards.

An evaluation of total scoring and margin of victory shows that the 2024-25 season was the second-lowest scoring season under halves (behind only the 2021-22 campaign that appears to be an aberration in both boys and girls numbers), but that was driven largely by the increasing gap between good teams and everyone else.

The average score for winning teams was just over 58 points in the first couple years under the halves system, but that has gone up to 59.60 last season. Meanwhile, the average score of losing teams was over 39 points when halves were first implemented, but that has continued to go down, landing at 36.75 last season.

Thus, the average margin of victory swelled to 22.9 points last year in girls basketball.

Many people have pointed to a growing gap between the good teams and the weak teams in girls basketball over the last number of years, as participation numbers have declined around the state. That increase between the "haves" and "have nots" is confirmed in our data, and should to be a continued point of concern and possible action throughout the basketball community, including the WIAA and the Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association.

As outlined above, there are some considerable differences in the numbers between boys and girls basketball. While most have assumed that there are more points scored in boys basketball, the data above lays out just how different the results are.

In the time played under four, eight-minute quarters, boys basketball teams averaged 105.3 points per game, compared to 87.7 points per game for girls teams, a difference of 17.6 points per game. In the ten following seasons, boys basketball teams averaged 119.0 points per game while girls teams averaged 97.1 points per game, a difference of 21.9 points per contest.

It’s always fun to dig into numbers and data, and put some hard and fast figures behind what we see as anecdotal evidence. It has felt like there’s been more scoring in recent years on the boys side, and that has certainly been backed up by the data. It has also felt like the gap is growing between good teams and the “rest”, especially in girls basketball. Again, that is verified by the scoring information provided.

Hopefully this information can be part of what continues to guide discussion on what is next and best for high school basketball.