Bay Port is still alive as it chases a repeat Division 1 state title
I was 24-5 in picking Sectional Final games last week, an improvement from last year when I was 18-12 at the same level. Overall this postseason I am at 87.39% (194-28). Below are my predictions for state semi-final games in Divisions 5 through 8-player. Divisions 1 through 4 will be posted soon.
These are two of the absolute heavyweight programs in the state of Wisconsin, especially at the big school level. Waunakee has seven state titles and 91 playoff victories (tied for second all-time), while Arrowhead has claimed six championships in 13 state final appearances, capturing 77 postseason victories, eighth in state history. Waunakee has looked much better since a narrow overtime victory against eighth-seeded Chippewa Falls in Level 1. Arrowhead has had to survive tough games against Greater Metro Conference teams the last two weeks, but the Warhawks have loads of talent and are looking to get to state for the first time since 2015.
My Pick: Arrowhead 27, Waunakee 26
It was just a year ago that these teams met in Madison for the Division 1 state championship. Bay Port dominated the first half, jumping out to a 19-0 advantage at the break, before holding off a late Muskego charge for a 25-18 victory and the school’s first WIAA state title. There are a number of standouts on both sides that are back this season, including Bay Port quarterback Matt Stevens, running back Brady Moon, and defensive standout Brock Gauthier. Jackson Niemiec led Muskego in rushing in the championship last year and has been dynamic for the Warriors again.
My Pick: Muskego 27, Bay Port 25
D1 Last Week: 3-1
D1 Overall: 25-3; 89.29%
Notre Dame (12-0) vs. River Falls (11-1) at D.C. Everest HS
Notre Dame took down one of the Big Rivers Conference co-champions last week in a 28-20 victory against Rice Lake, as junior running back Kingston Allen continued his assault on opposing defenses this season. He had 286 yards and four touchdowns, and is just 33 yards away from becoming the third player in state history to go over 3,000 yards in a season, despite missing a game. River Falls has given up some big numbers on the scoreboard, but the offense has been clicking on all cylinders, as this could be a high-scoring affair. Tino Massa has thrown for more than 2500 yards for the Wildcats, and Joseph Tarasewicz is a multi-dimensional threat out of the backfield, including more than 200 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards last week.
My Pick: Notre Dame 31, River Falls 28
Homestead (12-0) vs. West De Pere (12-0) at Neenah HS
What a matchup this figures to be, with a couple teams that have been incredibly impressive this season, albeit in very different ways. Homestead relies on a strong defense and a punishing rushing attack, as the Highlanders have four players with at least 500 rushing yards, averaging 360 yards per game on the ground. Were De Pere features one of the most high-powered offensives in the state, as quarterback Patrick Greisen has thrown for 44 touchdowns this year and recently broke the all-time passing touchdown record. He’s just three away from 100 for his career.
My Pick: Homestead 28, West De Pere 27
D2 Last Week: 4-0
D2 Overall: 25-3; 89.29%
Catholic Memorial (11-1) vs. Grafton (12-0) at Oconomowoc HS
These teams have seemingly been on a collision course for a good while, ranked #1 (Catholic Memorial) and #2 (Grafton) all season in the Bound Wisconsin Coaches Poll. Catholic Memorial was the runner-up in D3 last season, while Grafton finished second in 2023. There’s plenty of talent all around on both sides, as these are experienced groups. Grafton returned 17 starters from a year ago, and have gotten some new faces to step up in a big way at the skill spots, as quarterback Nicholas Schiller has thrown for 1,880 yards, junior Jack Nelson has rushed for 1,625, and Tyler Deer is over 1,000 receiving yards. Catholic Memorial has multiple D1 college players on the defense, with the offense making some strides behind sophomore quarterback Dalton Steinke, as Devon Williams, Jr. has stepped up at the running back spot.
My Pick: Grafton 27, Catholic Memorial 26
Reedsburg (9-3) vs. Whitefish Bay (6-6) at Madison La Follette HS
These teams combined for nine losses during the regular season, and as a four-seed (Reedsburg) and eight-seed (Whitefish Bay), this is the one game that bucks the trend of largely chalk in the state semi-finals. Whitefish Bay is the biggest Cinderella of the playoffs, going from a 3-6 regular season record that would not have qualified them for the playoffs in the old system, to a run to the state semi-finals as an eight seed, just the third team to make it this far as an eight seed since true seeding began in 2012. The Blue Dukes are trying to become first eight seed to qualify for the state finals. Getting players healthy late in the year and being battle tested in the North Shore Conference has allowed the team to surpass expectations to this point. Reedsburg dropped a trio of one-score games in the Mississippi Valley, but have taken out Waterford, top-seeded Edgewood, and Pewaukee in the last three weeks. The Beavers are second in the state in rushing yards this season.
My Pick: (No selection)*
D3 Last Week: 3-0
D3 Overall: 22-2; 91.67%
* - Disclaimer: I am an assistant coach at Reedsburg
Baldwin-Woodville (12-0) vs. Winneconne (12-0) at Marshfield HS
Same teams, same seeds, slightly different location. Last year, these teams faced off in the state semi-finals at Medford High School, with Baldwin-Woodville pulling away for a 40-16 victory to send them to the D4 title game. Baldwin-Woodville returned just 11 starters from that group, but the Blackhawks have been very impressive in going undefeated with a Middle Border Conference title. Last week, they knocked off top-ranked Aquinas 27-20. Winneconne dominated the Bay Conference again behind 17 returning starters from a year ago, including dynamic Iowa commit Brody Schaffer, who threw for 1,638 yards and rushed for 1,009, accounting for 37 offensive touchdowns.
My Pick: Winneconne 26, Baldwin-Woodville 23
Columbus (11-1) vs. Little Chute (11-1) at Kewaskum HS
Little Chute is experiencing quite the resurgence under first year coach Mark Krommenacker, who has brought the flexbone option attack to town and helped the Mustangs roll up huge numbers on the ground. Reece Joten leads the team with 1,413 yards and 17 touchdowns, but there’s plenty of contributions elsewhere, as the team averages 348 rushing yards per contest. The team’s only loss this year was a close 14-6 decision against fellow D4 semi-finalist Winneconne way back in Week 1. Columbus also suffered an early non-conference loss, against Aquinas, but has rattled off 10 straight wins since then, getting better and better as the season has rolled along. The Cardinals spread things around, with three different players that has rushed for at least 10 touchdowns, but none that have gone over 1,000 rushing yards yet. Senior quarterback Peyton Powers is outstanding as a passer and runner.
My Pick: Columbus 26, Little Chute 23
D4 Last Week: 2-2
D4 Overall: 23-5; 82.14%
Travis Wilson serves as the Bound Wisconsin Manager. Wilson was selected as part of the Sports 40 Under 40 list by Coach & AD Magazine and the National High School Athletic Coaches Association for 2019. The Wisconsin Football Coaches Association (WFCA) named Travis the 2015 recipient of the Dave McClain Distinguished Service Award. He currently serves on the WFCA Executive Board and is a member of the Executive Board of the Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association. A graduate of Richland Center High School and Mount Mercy College in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Travis was a three-sport athlete in high school (football, baseball, basketball), inducted to the Richland Center High School Hall of Fame in 2023, and currently resides in Reedsburg. You can follow him on Twitter at @travisBound or reach him at [email protected].