State Semi-Final Football Predictions - Division 5 through 8-Player

I was 22-10 in picking Sectional Final games last week, not quite up to last year when I went 24-5 at the same level. Overall this postseason I am at 87.05% (195-29). Below are my predictions for state semi-final games in Divisions 5 through 8-player. Divisions 1 through 4 will be posted soon.

All games Friday at 7 pm at neutral locations.

Amherst (12-0) vs. Darlington (12-0) at Horicon HS

What a heavyweight matchup in Division 5, as these teams have combined for 11 state title trips and five championships since 2012. They’ve been unstoppable this season, both entering undefeated. Darlington was the Division 6 champ last year, and with the return of 17 starters from that group, have been the favorite in the elevated division all year. Amherst is no slouch, especially with senior Ayden Nerdahl running wild to the tune of 2,555 yards and 47 touchdowns on the ground.

My Pick: Darlington 35, Amherst 29

Lake Country Lutheran (10-2) vs. New Glarus (11-1) at Westosha Central HS

Lake Country Lutheran is in the state semifinals for a second straight season and sixth time since 2013. It’s still a pretty young group, especially at the skill positions, where they rely heavily on junior quarterback Will Molnau and the passing game. New Glarus is new to this position, making its first state semifinal appearance in school history. The Glarner Knights’ only loss this year came against Darlington, and wins by both teams would set up an all-SWAL rematch.

My Pick: Lake Country Lutheran 27, New Glarus 18

D5 Last Week: 2-2
D5 Overall: 25-3; 89.29%

Lomira (12-0) vs. Bonduel (12-0) at Papermaker Stadium, Kimberly

Lomira is two years removed from a Division 6 state title and coming off a huge 16-12 win over Edgar in the sectional finals. The Lions rely heavily on talented sophomore running back Hunter Schaumberg, who went over 2000 yards last week. Bonduel is in search of its first-ever state title game appearance, though several players, including Quinn Wesenberg and Carter Moesch, were key parts of the Bears’ boys basketball team that went to state in March.

My Pick: Lomira 19, Bonduel 17

Kenosha St. Joseph (10-2) vs. Mondovi (11-1) at Waupaca High School

Kenosha St. Joseph is into the Division 6 state semifinals after winning a title in D7 last year, though the Lancers returned just six starters from that team. They rely heavily on multi-dimensional playmaker Christopher Kenesie, who leads the team in passing, rushing, tackles, interceptions, kick returns, punt returns, and punting. Mondovi is coming off a second win over rival Regis, as the Buffaloes are a veteran group that still relies quite a bit on a strong junior class. That includes quarterback Bode Falkner, who has throw for 2,472 yards and rushed for 917, accounting for 50 offensive touchdowns.

My Pick: Mondovi 27, Kenosha St. Joseph 20

D6 Last Week: 2-2
D6 Overall: 24-4; 85.71%

River Ridge (11-1) vs. Glenwood City (11-1) at Chippewa Falls HS

River Ridge was a tri-champion of the Six Rivers Conference, and has rolled through the playoffs, including a 21-7 win over Spring Valley, the only team to beat Glenwood City this year. There are a few potential storylines should River Ridge get through to state, including the potential for Timberwolves head coach Wade Winkers to join brother Travis Winkers of Darlington at Camp Randall. Also, should Iowa-Grant win, it would be an all-Six Rivers final. Glenwood City will be trying to prevent those possibilities, sharing the Dunn-St. Croix Conference title behind a stingy defense that has posted six shutouts this season, including two in the playoffs. Head coach Shane Strong led the program to back-to-back trips to state in 2012 and 2013, winning it all in 2012.

My Pick: River Ridge 27, Glenwood City 18

Hilbert (9-3) vs. Iowa-Grant (10-2) at Oconomowoc HS

Hilbert was third in the Big East standings against a number of D5 and D6 opponents, but dropping down in the playoffs has allowed the Wolves to score back-to-back road upsets over Lourdes Academy and Coleman. Iowa-Grant was part of a three-way tie atop the Six Rivers standings, and could potentially join River Ridge for an all-Six Rivers title game. The Panthers have put up big numbers on offense behind one of the top passing attacks in the division, but the defense has really stepped up the last couple weeks with back-to-back shutouts of Pepin/Alma and Ithaca/Weston.

My Pick: Iowa-Grant 30, Hilbert 28

D7 Last Week: 1-3
D7 Overall: 22-6; 78.57%

Gilman (12-0) vs. Belmont (12-0), Saturday 1 pm at Wisconsin Rapids HS

This marks the first time that the WIAA 8-Player State Championship game features a pair of undefeated teams, as these two have seemed to be on a collision course much of the year. Gilman is also looking to atone for a poor showing in last year’s championship game, when they entered undefeated and had already beaten McDonell Central, but fell to the Macks. Gilman has allowed just 34 points this season and has posted running clock shutouts the last three weeks of the playoffs. Belmont is into the 8-player title game for the second time, taking home a runner-up trophy in 2022. The Braves feature one of the more balanced offensive attacks in 8-player, with junior quarterback Wyatt Temperly the main engine, as he’s accounted for more than 2800 yards and 48 offensive scores.

My Pick: Gilman 30, Belmont 20

8-Player Last Week: 2-0
8-Player Overall: 27-3; 90%