State Semi-Final Football Predictions - Division 1 through 4

I was 22-10 in picking Sectional Final games last week, not quite up to last season when I was 24-5 at the same level. Overall this postseason I am at 87.05% (195-29). Below are my predictions for state semi-final games in Divisions 1 through 4. Click here to see the preview and predictions for D5 through 8-player.

Racine Case (11-1) vs. West De Pere (12-0) at Bank of Sun Prairie Stadium

Racine Case may be the most unlikely state semifinalist. Not because they weren’t good this year, because they were, winning the Southeast Conference and knocking off Franklin in a non-conference game. But because just three years ago the program had never won a postseason game. After three straight Level 2 exits, they broke through this season in a big way, holding Muskego to just 18 rushing yards and 58 total yards of offense in a 6-3 win on a game-winning field goal as time expired. Now Case matches up with West De Pere, the Division 2 state champion last year who has done just fine moving up to D1. The Phantoms are unbeaten, including a win over Bay Port, and while junior Andrew Greisen has thrown for more than 2400 yards, they proved they can run it effectively when necessary, as senior Kainan Strong rushed for 347 yards in last week’s win over Hudson.

My Pick: West De Pere 27, Racine Case 21

Bay Port (11-1) vs. Hamilton (12-0) at Titan Stadium, UW-Oshkosh

Bay Port is going for a third straight trip to state after a title in 2024 and runner-up finish a year ago. The Pirates’ only loss was against West De Pere, who could be a potential foe in the championship game. Bay Port looked fully in control last week, going up 21-0 on Waunakee less than eight minutes into the game, but stalled out and had to go to overtime to secure a 28-21 win. The Pirates have a unique quarterback platoon where Bray Babich and Braydon Maney each have a drive at the helm then rotate every play the remainder of the way. Hamilton is into the state semifinals for the third time in six years, still looking to break through to Madison for the first time since the program’s only trip in 2000. Multi-year starter Cole Erdmann has the controls at quarterback, throwing 30 touchdowns this season. The Chargers have a strong rushing attack as well, averaging more than 230 rushing yards per game behind twin UW commits Hunter and Reece Mallinger.

My Pick: Bay Port 24, Hamilton 23

D1 Last Week: 2-2
D1 Overall: 26-2; 92.86%

Union Grove (12-0) vs. Notre Dame (12-0) at Slinger HS

Notre Dame has rolled since a couple tight early non-conference wins over Neenah and Kaukauna, as senior running back Kingston Allen is continuing to set records. In fact, he’s 214 yards away from the career rushing record and 103 from breaking his own single-season mark. The big and talented Notre Dame line has been able to create running lanes, but Union Grove may be the kind of team to close some of those up. They also play a physical brand of football that has dominated up front, and the brother duo of lineman JJ Fletcher and linebacker Bennett Fletcher are game-wreckers. Bennett has taken on a bigger role in the running game in the postseason, going for 347 yards the last two weeks.

My Pick: Notre Dame 34, Union Grove 24

Monona Grove (11-1) vs. New Richmond (12-0) at Wisconsin Rapids HS

Monona Grove is playing in a state semifinal for the first time since a runner-up finish in 2016. The Silver Eagles’ only loss came late in the year against Waunakee, 7-3, and they took down defending D3 state champion Grafton last week. The offense has been driven by quarterback Jaxon Zukowski, who has more than 1600 passing yards and 1200 rushing yards this season, accounting for 41 touchdowns. New Richmond ran through the Big Rivers Conference again, and remains undefeated after a narrow 21-20 win over upset-minded Brookfield Central last week. The Tigers feature one of the top running backs in the state, senior North Dakota State recruit Austyn Wittek.

My Pick: Monona Grove 28, New Richmond 27

D2 Last Week: 4-0
D2 Overall: 23-5; 82.14%

La Crosse Logan (12-0) vs. Port Washington (12-0) at DeForest HS

La Crosse Logan won a Mississippi Valley Conference title and are into the state semifinals for the second time in the last three years and third time overall. The Rangers are extremely physical on both sides of the ball and have a strong group of playmakers on offense led by junior quarterback Tommy Check, who has more than 2500 total yards of offense and is responsible for 32 touchdowns. Running back Jameson Degenhardt has rushed for 1,781 yards and 26 touchdowns, while Bubba Leaver and Charles Zellner are talented 6-5 passing targets. They’ll be an interesting contrast in styles with a Port Washington team that is unbeaten as well, but do most of their damage through the air. Junior quarterback Jack Bunyan has thrown for more than 3500 yards and 42 touchdowns this season, as the Pirates average just 74 rushing yards per game. They would be one of the most passing-reliant teams to ever get to state should they win.

My Pick: La Crosse Logan 30, Port Washington 28

Catholic Memorial (7-5) vs. Pewaukee (12-0) at Kettle Moraine HS

Catholic Memorial is the highest-seeded team left in the entire playoffs, though the Crusaders aren’t exactly your typical five-seed. Loaded with talent, they moved into the Greater Metro and a much more challenging schedule this year. CMH survived a physical game with New Berlin West a couple weeks ago, and Pewaukee is a bigger and even more physical squad. The Pirates are undefeated this year and have rolled through some pretty good teams along the way. Benji Weis rotated at quarterback last year but has really settled into the primary running back role this season. Pewaukee has a college-sized line, led by Northwestern commit Cade Reikowski and Wisconsin commit Jake Tabbert.

My Pick: Pewaukee 27, Catholic Memorial 21

D3 Last Week: 3-1
D3 Overall: 22-4; 84.62%

Little Chute (11-1) vs. Freedom (12-0) at Ashwaubenon HS

This is a rematch from a regular season game that Freedom won 49-29 back in September, marking the only loss for Little Chute and the closest game that Freedom had all season. It was 28-22 at halftime before Freedom pulled away in the second half. Owen Henkel had a big game, throwing for 306 yards and four touchdowns. Little Chute was the state runner-up in Division 4 last year and lost some key linemen up front. They’ve settled in the last part of the season, and have won six straight since that loss to Freedom earlier in the year.

My Pick: Freedom 31, Little Chute 27

West Salem (12-0) vs. Lake Mills (11-1) at Stoughton HS

West Salem enters the state semifinals undefeated, as they cruised through the Coulee Conference schedule to a league crown. In the postseason, they beat conference rival Aquinas for a second time before a 45-6 thumping of Racine St. Catherine’s on Saturday. The Panthers are big and physical up front, with more size than most Division 4 teams operate with. Drew McConkey is dynamic from the quarterback spot, with more than 1000 yards both passing and rushing. Lake Mills rebounded from an early loss to Freedom to rattle off 11 straight wins, winning the Capitol Conference title. Senior quarterback Tyler Wollin broke the state’s career passing touchdowns record and directs one of the top aerial attacks in the state.

My Pick: West Salem 26, Lake Mills 24

D4 Last Week: 4-0
D4 Overall: 26-2; 92.86%